What Is The Gap Between Supply And Demand Of High Quality Cotton In 2016/17?

It is understood that the supply gap of high-grade cotton in 2016/17 has once again become the focus of attention of all parties, and cotton trading enterprises are gradually coming from behind the scenes to become the other key factor affecting cotton prices in 5-9 months.

The following is a look at the specific information with the world's clothing and shoe net.

Since April, the average price of the reserve cotton turnover has risen from 14666 yuan / ton to 15283 yuan / ton, up 617 yuan / ton, or 4.21%.

Among them, the reserve Xinjiang cotton auction is fierce and substantial increase is the key factor in the recent rise in paction price.

From April 6th to May 5th, the sale of reserve cotton was sold.

The average fare increase from 651 yuan / ton to 956 yuan / ton, up 305 yuan / ton, or 2.02%.

In response to the reserve cotton production, the spot quotation of Xinjiang cotton from 4 to May was strong, and then the price rise.

The author analyzed that in addition to the daily average reserves of Xinjiang cotton's reduced listing resources (from 15 thousand tons to 10 thousand tons in the early stage), the textile enterprises and traders' panic mentality intensified. Recently, the main cotton producing areas in Xinjiang suffered from regional weather disasters, and the factors such as 2016/17's Xinjiang cotton pportation and the rebound of external commodities were also contributing to cotton prices.

Enter May, follow

The number of planting area, consumption forecast and import volume was announced, and the cotton enterprises of cotton storage gradually pushed forward from three futures, spot, and storage. The supply gap of high-grade cotton in 2016/17 has once again become the focus of attention of all parties.

Another key factor.

Then, how big is the gap of high-grade cotton in 2016/17?

1. High quality cotton consumption in China in 5-9

The USDA and ICAC estimates of cotton consumption in China in 2016/17 are 7 million 893 thousand tons and 7 million 620 thousand tons respectively, and the average of two is about 7 million 760 thousand tons, with an average of 646 thousand tons per month. Then, China's cotton consumption is about 3 million 232 thousand tons in 5-9 months.

According to the author's investigation, the output of 40S and more counts of domestic combed yarn and combed yarn accounts for about 30-35% of the total output of cotton yarn. According to the highest 35%, the domestic quality cotton needs about 323.2*0.35=113.12 tons.

Two, 5-9 high quality cotton supply in China

According to the cotton warehouse in the southern part of the country, about 880 thousand tons of cotton is stored, and the proportion of lint cotton in the southern part of the province is less than 30%. That is to say, the quality of cotton in the supervision bureau is about 264 thousand tons; 2, according to the statistics of the China Cotton Association, as at the end of March, the national cotton business inventory is 2 million 30 thousand tons. Based on this, it is estimated that there are about 25-30 million tons of cotton in Xinjiang in the end of April (mostly cotton with better quality); 3, March 6th to May 5th, the daily listing of Xinjiang cotton in the proportion of 35-60%, at the lowest 35% level, the total amount of new cotton production in the month of May 5th is about 875 thousand tons, and the amount of cotton yarn spun 40S and above is 40S. 1. According to statistics, as at the end of April,

The total supply of high quality cotton in China needs at least 951 thousand and 500 tons.

Three / 5-9 cotton imports

According to customs statistics, in 2017, 1-3 months in 2017, China imported 374 thousand tons of cotton, such as imports in April, calculated by 130 thousand tons, and the import quota of cotton imported in 5-9 months was about 450 thousand tons. However, taking into account the quota usage habits of textile enterprises and the supply of foreign cotton (5-9 cotton, cotton, cotton and cotton in 5-9 months), it was estimated that about 300 thousand tons of imported cotton could be imported in 5-9 months (the remaining 150 thousand tons were used in February October 2017 -2018).

According to the above projections, the total quantity of high-quality and high-grade cotton in 5-9 may be about 95.15+30=125.15 million tons, while consumption needs 1 million 131 thousand and 200 tons (more data is presumed). The supply is larger than the demand of about 120 thousand tons. The whole domestic market is indeed in a tight balance. However, the change of the new cotton market and the main cotton production area in the 2017/18 cotton market are relatively large.

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