Statistics Bureau: Third Quarter Economic Data Released Next Thursday

　　 National Bureau of Statistics Responsible person said on the 11 day, the third quarter of this year's national economic performance data will be released next Thursday (21), including the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI) and other important data.

The plan released by the National Bureau of statistics at the beginning of the year shows that the relevant data in the third quarter will be released in October 21st. It is reported that China's quarterly GDP accounting is divided into three steps: preliminary accounting, preliminary verification and final verification, and this is the preliminary accounting data for the third quarter.

For the three quarter of the macroeconomic trend, the latest report released by the National Information Center believes that the three quarter of China's economic growth continued to slow down, inflation expectations have weakened. Initially forecast, the three quarter GDP growth of about 9.2%, CPI growth of about 3%.

The reports released by major research institutions show that China's GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to remain at around 9.5%, and the CPI increase in September was flat or last month.

The report predicts that, following August CPI After climbing 3.5% to a new high in the year, CPI rose the highest or reached 3.9% in September. Among them, Shanghai securities forecasts the highest CPI in September, reaching 3.9%. Bank of communications Financial Research Center predicted that CPI growth in September was about 3.7%. CICC expects inflation to rise again in September and climb to a 3.6% high.

However, the industry experts generally believe that CPI will peaked after reaching its peak in September, and it is expected that CPI will slow down to 3% by the end of the year. Although China is currently facing negative interest rates, it has implemented low interest rates in major countries such as the United States and Japan. Zero interest rate Under the policy, in order to prevent the influx of hot money, China is unlikely to raise interest rates during the year.

However, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of agriculture previously released the index of agricultural products is not optimistic. According to the latest monitoring data from the Ministry of Commerce, the price index of edible agricultural products was 130.56 points from September 20th to September 26th, up 0.8% from the previous week, thus maintaining a continuous rise of 14 weeks.

Experts say food prices Seasonality Rising short-term factors, as well as wage increases, resource product price adjustment and other price structural rise pressure will exist for a long time, making the four quarter price fall is limited, CPI will generally be in a moderate rise. In addition, the annual CPI increase will be judged between 2.5% and 3%. It is estimated that 3% of the annual price target is expected to be realized.