US Department Of Agriculture October Cotton Outlook Report (Multi Map)
The US Department of agriculture's latest cotton production forecast for 2010/11 shows that foreign cotton consumption is expected to rise, but foreign cotton output growth is expected to be faster.
Therefore, the gap between consumption and output in 2010/11 is expected to shrink.
While the world economy continues to recover, tight supply is expected to limit growth in foreign cotton consumption, with a growth rate of 2.5%.
In contrast, foreign production is estimated at 97 million 800 thousand packs, which is nearly 10% higher than that in 2009/10, because the foreign planting area has returned to its highest level in 4 years.
along with
Foreign production
The growth rate exceeds consumption, and the consumption / production gap in 2010/11 is expected to drop to 19 million 400 thousand bales, nearly 6 million less than the largest gap in 2009/10.
However, foreign stocks fell to a 7 year low at the beginning of the year to boost import demand in 2010/11.
Therefore, the United States
Cotton demand
It is expected that US exports will account for about 40% of global cotton trade in 2010/11.
Figure 1 foreign cotton consumption / output gap
US domestic
Cotton situation
expectation
The October report raised the US cotton output slightly in 2010.
According to the US Department of agriculture's report on crop production in October, the US cotton output in 2010 is expected to be close to 18 million 900 thousand packages, slightly higher than last month's report, which is 6 million 700 thousand more than that in 2009.
The increase in planting area and the abandonment of the area are near the lowest level in history. These are the reasons for the increase in cotton production this year.
In addition, the highest yield per unit area in the United States was third. The reason is that the growth of cotton is better than that of the average year. Therefore, this year's output is expected to be the highest in three years.
The output of Upland Cotton in the United States is estimated at 18 million 400 thousand bales, an increase of about 6 million 600 thousand packages over the previous year, which is about 1000000 more than that of last year.
In the first 20 years, 14 were predicted to be lower than final output in October, and 6 times higher than final output.
The gap between the October forecast and the final production estimate showed that the probability of US cotton in the 17 million 500 thousand pack of -1930 packages was 67% in 2010.
In 2010, the output of regional upland cotton is expected to increase over the previous two years.
However, compared with the average yield of 5 years, only upland cotton in Southwest China was estimated to increase in October 2010.
Production in the southwest region is estimated to be 9 million 400 thousand packs, a record high, because the planting area has been the largest in 5 years, and the unit yield is the second highest yield in the region's history.
In the southeast, cotton production is estimated at 4 million packs, which is slightly lower than the 5 year average yield. The reason is that the planting area has been enlarged in 2010, but the yield per unit area has been reduced.
In the delta area, after four consecutive years of decline in planting area, it was resumed in 2010, and the unit yield is estimated to be the second highest yield in history.
Delta production in 2010 is estimated at 3 million 900 thousand packs, the highest in three years.
Fig. 2 regional upland cotton yield in the United States
US inventory and annual average price increase in 2009/10
According to the latest supply and demand forecast, the US end inventory in 2009/10 is projected to be 2 million 950 thousand packages based on the Census Bureau and adjusted market annual data.
Inventory is expected to be the lowest level in 14 years, and the inventory to consumption ratio is the lowest level in 6 years.
In the October report, the US Department of Agriculture issued the final average price in 2009/10, which was eventually estimated at 62.9 cents / pound, slightly higher than last month.
The average unit price last year was the highest average price after 65.2 cents in 1997/98.
international
Global cotton output will increase in 2010/11
In the 2008 and 2009 sales year, world cotton production declined due to the global financial crisis. In 2010/11, output is expected to rebound to 116 million 700 thousand bales.
An increase of 15% over the previous year is the largest year-on-year increase in 7 years.
Fiber market prices continued to rise strongly, prompting some major cotton producing countries to increase production.
Australia's output in 2010/11 is expected to be 3 million 300 thousand packs, more than double that of last year, because water resources can be improved and market conditions are favorable. Therefore, the cotton growing area in the southern hemisphere will be expanded.
Australia's cotton planting area is estimated at 425000 hectares in 2010/11, an increase of 113% over the previous year, creating the largest cotton planting area in 10 years.
Another southern hemisphere, Brazil, is expected to produce 7 million bales of cotton, an increase of 31% over the previous year. It is one of the highest yields in Brazil's history.
Because of higher prices and growing demand in China and other countries, growers are expected to expand cotton planting area by 25%.
China is the world's leading cotton producer. 2010/11 expects to produce 31 million 500 thousand bales of cotton, 1.6% less than last year.
China's cotton output has declined for third consecutive years.
2010/11 cotton planting area in China is estimated at 5 million 250 thousand hectares, which is the same as last year's harvest area.
But the weather is bad in some areas, and the yield per unit area is expected to decrease.
India's output in 2010/11 is estimated at 26 million packs, an increase of 12% over the previous year.
India's BT cotton planting area has increased in recent years to promote cotton production, and the price increase has also led to the expansion of planting area this year.
Cotton planting area in India is estimated at 10 million 900 thousand hectares in 2010/11, an increase of 6% over the previous year. As a result of the improvement of the precipitation coverage in the monsoon rainy season, the yield per unit area may also rebound.
Pakistan's output in 2010/11 is expected to decline 3.1% from last year to 9 million 300 thousand packages, and the US and Uzbekistan production are expected to be 18 million 900 thousand and 4 million 800 thousand, respectively, representing an increase of 55% and 23% respectively over the previous year.
The global cotton planting area is estimated to be 33 million 300 thousand hectares, an increase of 10% over the previous year. The world production in 2010/11 is expected to increase by 5% from last year to 764 kg / ha.
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World cotton trade rebound in 2010/11
World cotton exports in 2010/11 are projected to be 38 million 100 thousand packages, up 5% from the previous year, similar to the volume before the global financial crisis.
In 2010/11, exports from Australia and Brazil are estimated to be 2 million 750 thousand and 2 million 200 thousand packs, representing an increase of 30% and 10% respectively over the previous year.
At present, Australia is expected to surpass Brazil and the African Franc area and become the fourth largest exporter of cotton in the world.
India, the world's second largest exporter of cotton, is expected to export 4 million 800 thousand packages, down 27% from last year, because the India government continues to restrict cotton exports.
Uzbekistan's export volume in 2010/11 is expected to decline 1.3% from last year to 3 million 800 thousand bales.
The United States, the world's largest exporter of cotton, expects to export 15 million 500 thousand bales of cotton, an increase of 29% over the previous year, the largest export volume in 5 years.
As of September 30, 2010, US exports were entrusted to more than 9 million packages, which began in the middle of 1970s.
Presentation
The maximum number of delegate data since.
China is the largest importer of cotton in the world. It expects to import 13 million bales of cotton, an increase of 19% over last year.
In addition to China, most other major cotton importing countries in 2010 expected to reduce imports or increase imports slightly.
Indonesia expects to import 2 million 100 thousand packs in 2010/11, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year.
South Korea expects to import 1 million bales of cotton in 2010/11, down 1% from last year.
Pakistan and Turkey are expected to import 1 million 800 thousand and 3 million 200 thousand packs respectively, representing an increase of 29% and 27% respectively over the previous year.
2010/11 increased global textile production and tight stock
World cotton consumption in 2010/11 is projected to be 120 million 800 thousand packs, an increase of 2.6% over 2009/10 and an increase of about 7% in 2009/10.
The macroeconomic forecast is optimistic, providing support for consumption in 2010/11. At the same time, supply is tight and cotton prices remain high.
Historical analysis indicates that there is a strong positive correlation between cotton consumption in any market year and the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next calendar year.
As of October 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that global economic activity will grow by 4.2% in 2011, compared with an expected growth of 4.8% in 2010.
However, cotton consumption in 2010/11 is not expected to rise at the same time as GDP, partly due to the limited supply of cotton, and some fiber consumption may turn to polyester, especially in China and India's high growth domestic textile market.
Global consumption is expected to decrease by about 2% compared to the peak period before 2006/07 and 2007/08.
The end of the world inventory is expected to be 44 million 700 thousand packs, down 5% from last year, declining for fourth consecutive years.
In recent weeks, Cotlook A
index
The average is about 1.15 dollars, the highest level so far.
Tight inventory at the end of the world led to the recent surge in global cotton prices.
However, prices are high and the IMF is forecasting a slowdown in the first half of 2011.
cotton spinning
Weaving plant consumption further expanded.
As shown in Figure 3, cotton consumption in Brazil, China and India in 2010/11 is expected to increase by 4.5%, 2% and 6.2% respectively from last year to 4 million 600 thousand packs, 50 million packages and 20 million 700 thousand packages.
Pakistan 2010/11 textile mill consumption is expected to maintain the previous year's level. In the 11 million bales, Turkey and the United States expect to spend 6 million and 3 million 600 thousand bales of cotton, respectively, up 3.4% and 4.3% respectively over the previous year.
Fig. 3 some countries in 2010/11
Home textiles
Fabric production expected rebound
USDA
2010-11 world cotton supply and demand (10.08)
World cotton supply and demand 1/ million package 480 pounds per pack
Supply quantity
Consumption
region
Early inventory
yield
Imported
Domestic consumption
Exit
Loss /2
Ending inventory
2010/11 (expected)
world
September
46.98 116.95 37.96 120.53 37.96 -2.04 45.44
October
46.69 116.68 38.08 120.77 38.08 -2.06 44.66
U.S.A
September
3 18.84 3/ 3.60 15.50 0.04 2.70
October
2.95 18.87 3/ 3.60 15.50 0.02 2.70
All other countries
September
43.98 98.11 37.96 116.93 22.46 -2.08 42.74
October
43.75 97.81 38.08 117.17 22.58 -2.08 41.96
4/, the main export country
September
15.59 49.17 2.12 30.03 19.12 -0.19 17.90
October
15.77 49.82 2.12 30.24 19.29 -0.19 18.35
Central Asia 5/
September
1.84 6.97 0.01 1.73 5.66 0 1.43
October
1.86 6.97 0.01 1.74 5.65 0 1.45
African Franc 6/
September
0.51 2.76 3/ 0.18 2.57 0 0.52
October
0.52 2.76 3/ 0.18 2.57 0 0.52
Southern hemisphere 7/
September
6.14 11.84 1.11 5.95 5.45 -0.20 7.90
October
6.30 12.49 1.11 5.95 5.83 -0.20 8.32
Australia
September
0.46 3 3/ 0.04 2.50 -0.07 1
October
0.62 3.30 3/ 0.04 2.75 -0.07 1.21
Brazil
September
4.25 7 0.90 4.60 2.20 -0.15 5.50
October
4.25 7 0.90 4.60 2.20 -0.15 5.50
India
September
6.67 26 0.50 20.50 5 0 7.67
October
6.67 26 0.50 20.70 4.80 0 7.67
Major importing countries 8/
September
26.86 46.19 33.17 82.69 2.11 -1.89 23.31
October
26.46 45.24 33.30 82.75 2.06 -1.89 22.09
Mexico
September
0.56 0.61 1.40 1.90 0.15 0.03 0.50
October
0.58 0.61 1.40 1.90 0.15 0.03 0.51
China
September
18.78 32.50 12.75 50 0.03 -2.00 16.01
October
18.25 31.50 13 50 0.03 -2.00 14.72
EU 27 9/
September
0.47 1.38 0.84 0.93 1.28 0.05 0.43
October
0.47 1.33 0.85 0.93 1.23 0.05 0.43
Turkey
September
1.83 2.30 3.40 6 0.15 -0.08 1.46
October
1.93 2.40 3.20 6 0.15 -0.08 1.46
Pakistan
September
2.70 9.30 1.80 11 0.30 0.03 2.47
October
2.73 9.30 1.80 11 0.30 0.03 2.51
Indonesia
September
0.36 0.03 2.13 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.35
October
0.36 0.03 2.13 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand
September
0.30 3/ 1.75 1.70 0.01 0.03 0.32
October
0.30 3/ 1.75 1.70 0.01 0.03 0.32
Bengal
September
0.74 0.05 4.15 4.20 0 0.01 0.73
October
0.74 0.05 4.15 4.20 0 0.01 0.73
Vietnam?
September
0.38 0.02 1.70 1.75 0 0 0.35
October
0.38 0.02 1.70 1.75 0 0 0.35
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