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The Theme Of External Speculation Is Weak. Zheng Cotton Continues To Bear Pressure.

2011/5/20 11:49:00 36

New York cotton rose sharply in three consecutive trading days.

Zheng cotton

Only a small number of high rises and three rushing lines have been collected.

At the same time, from the perspective of technical graphics, once Zheng cotton broke through the recent consolidation area of 24000 yuan -26000 yuan, it will be a medium round market.

As far as fundamentals are concerned, we believe that the probability that Zheng cotton chooses to go downwards is too large.

Therefore, under the premise of the operation strategy, we suggest that investors can choose to sell high above 25500 yuan, 26000 yuan can stand firm as a stop loss point, the downlink space must exceed 2000 points, and more prudent investors can choose to wait and see, and wait for a breakthrough to pick up the market.

From the technical form of Zheng cotton since the beginning of May, if there are no frequent funds coming in and out of Zhejiang recently, the market will maintain a near future pattern in the near future. When the market digested the kinetic energy that fell by 30% in the past 3 months, the volume of trading and the poor fundamentals indicated the downward adjustment of the market.

But our question is whether the current huge volume of trading indicates a big reversal of the market, which is not the case, at least for the time being.

From the perspective of recent funds, large quantities of large quantities of money in and out also did not get much benefit, but instead of frequent frequent conversion of positions, and the 3 trading days outside the market rose, and did not push up Zheng cotton much.

The main contract in September hit the highest price of nearly 11 trading days yesterday, 25750 yuan, and finally fell back.

In the absence of basic coordination, we believe that the main funds will not be too steep.

From the periphery and the macro atmosphere, despite the sharp rebound in the external commodity group in May 18th, the recent US economic indicators, the Greek debt problem in the eurozone, and the tightening of the most important market regulation policies in China have not been very good.

Therefore, it is difficult to create a collective atmosphere of commodity market.

Finally, from

Cotton industry

Chain current situation, cotton spot prices temporarily stabilized in the range of 23000 yuan -25000 yuan, yarn prices temporarily stabilized near 35000 yuan, after a sharp decline, the market briefly fell into a vacuum vacuum.

But in fact, cotton spinning enterprises generally sell at a loss at the moment, but they never get the increase of sales volume. Instead, as time goes on, enterprises are constantly facing the pressure of forcing loans at the end of the year.

In addition, the area of Xinjiang cotton has increased substantially this year. At present, the growth of cotton in the whole country is generally better than that in the first two years.

At the same time, whether the shortage of high grade cotton resources is still a high expectation for all parties, the cotton textile enterprises have limited production and production increase, and the cotton production in the National Bureau of statistics has increased year-on-year and annulus ratio in April, and the ratio of yarn production has decreased in April.

Of course, the latter variables are not entirely absent.

Cotton prices have gone down sharply in the past 3 months.

industry chain

The impact of the parties has already been presented, which needs to be concerned about whether the policy changes caused by this situation; the weather changes in the northern hemisphere cotton growing season, especially in China and the United States.

In the current lack of information temporarily, it is speculation that the shortage of registered stocks in July is only a game of speculative capital.

Whether China's downstream consumption can improve or not is the key to deciding whether the current market will turn around at the end of the year.