Timely Rain In Dry Areas Relieved The Pressure Of Rising Prices
Over the past few years, several provinces and autonomous regions in China have been suffering from drought, tens of millions of mu of arable land has been suffering from drought, aquaculture has suffered losses, and drinking water has been difficult in some places.
Persistent drought has led to a strong market concern over the reduction in grain production and the eventual increase in grain prices. Experts expect the CPI to rise further.
Since June 3rd, a continuous heavy rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has not only alleviated the drought, but also alleviated the pressure of CPI rising to a certain extent.
The six southern provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and so on are the hardest hit areas in the drought, and also the traditional rice producing areas in China. In May and June, the critical period of tiller and heading of early indica rice in these areas was in the early stage.
price of food grains
The increase in expectations is raising concerns about the trend of inflation.
In addition to food crops, gardenia, Fructus aurantii Immaturus and Fructus aurantii Immaturus, the main producing areas of Chinese medicinal herbs are affected by drought, and their output has declined. Many fish and crabs that have been raised by fishermen have been eliminated due to drought, and the fishing season has begun in coastal areas.
Some experts expect that in May this year, CPI rose or exceeded 5.4% in March to hit a new high in the year, and CPI will not show a marked decline in the whole year. CPI will exceed 5%.
Probability event
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Haitong Securities (600837, stock bar) predicts that the CPI gains in May and June will reach 5.5% and 5.9% respectively. CICC even predicts that CPI may break six in June.
In the case of rising inflation expectations, the central bank's interest rate increase is also in the firing line.
The heavy rainfall not only alleviated the drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but also reduced the price expectation of agricultural products to a certain extent, alleviating the pressure of CPI rising.
The statistics of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office showed that, as of June 6th, the drought area in the five provinces of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 34 million 640 thousand mu, which was 22 million 310 thousand mu less than that before the rainfall. The drought area of the crops was 21 million 650 thousand mu, which was 10 million 390 thousand mu less than that before the rainfall. The area of water shortage and soil moisture loss was 12 million 990 thousand mu, 11 million 920 thousand mu less than that before rainfall, and 2 million 150 thousand people had difficulty in drinking water due to drought, which was reduced by 1 million 680 thousand than before rainfall.
Meanwhile, the drought relief work of various departments in the country has not been relaxed.
Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, recently attended the Forum on Drought Relief in five provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan, and stressed that doing a good job in current drought relief work is very important for promoting the steady development of grain and agriculture and the continuous increase of farmers' income. It is of great significance for maintaining stable and rapid economic development and managing the pre inflation period.
Wen Jiabao pointed out that we should increase investment in funds and materials for drought relief and strengthen support for agricultural production.
Recently, the central government will issue a batch of extra drought relief funds, focusing on subsidizing farmers' drought relief and drought relief service teams to carry out drought relief services.
We should further increase funds for disaster relief in agriculture and fishery production for farmers to purchase fish fry, seeds, fertilizers and other means of production.
At the same time, we should comprehensively strengthen the construction of water conservancy infrastructure and comprehensively implement the central government's policies and measures to strengthen water conservancy construction.
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