He Wan Man: Will The Stock Price Go Up If Gold Price Falls?

In the past week, gold has fallen by more than 100 US dollars. With gold prices dropping, Dow almost daily hit a new high, reaching 17554 points.

As the saying goes, "buying gold in troubled times, buying stocks in prosperous times". The chaotic times and flourishing times are just extreme statements, but stocks and gold are always opposite, but they have been proved by history. Gold has plunged, stocks have been rising, and global stock markets are going up and down. Will A shares follow? Especially on Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached an amplitude of nearly 50 points, drawing a long upper shadow line, and people are particularly concerned about this issue.

The recent sharp drop in gold was mainly affected by the rise in the US dollar and the downturn in inflation. The most important reason why the international price of gold has risen from $700-800 / ounce before the financial crisis to US $1900 / ounce is the constant introduction of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. U.S.A Completely withdraw from the implementation of six years of quantitative easing, indicating that the U.S. economy has been out of the financial crisis, the dollar strengthened, the price of gold will fall naturally. Plus China, the largest gold buyer in the world, Gold demand Greatly reduced, according to the China Gold Association data, in the first three quarters of 2014, China's gold consumption was 754.82 tons, compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 205.76 tons, down 21.42% compared with the same period last year, of which gold bar gold 119.42 tons, down 62.58% compared to the same period last year, highlighting the further cooling of investment demand.

The question is why the US economy is not good enough to introduce loose monetary policy, and gold has also risen in stocks (the Dow rose nearly 9400 times from the lowest point of the financial crisis to nearly 1 times).

And we have been here since 07 years ago. bull market The post currency is also quite loose, and stocks are basically not rising. With a little analysis, we can see that the US monetary easing is "quantity" and "price". In terms of volume, the four round of quantitative easing has released trillions of liquidity. From the "price" point of view, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the 10 time since August 2007, and overnight lending rates have dropped from 5.25% to 0% to 0.25%.

With sufficient capital and low cost, enterprises will recover faster and the stock market will certainly benefit. But in China, monetary easing is not wide. Although we add 8-9 trillion loans a year, the banknotes printed in the financial crisis have exceeded half of the world's total, and the loan interest rate has always been above 6%. That is 6%.

It is the monetary policy of "wide price and low price" that makes the Chinese banking industry make a big profit, and the enterprises are basically working for banks. The three quarterly report that has just been released shows that the total profits of the 16 listed banks are 10070 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 51.88% of the profits of all listed companies 19410 billion yuan.

Moreover, in view of the problems arising from the 10 to 20 trillion shadow banks, the Chinese monetary authorities have placed the risk control in an important position. At present, China's monetary policy is actually "not wide and cheap." In addition, structural adjustment and large overcapacity in traditional industries, China's stock market can only rely on storytelling theme investment, from time to time to pulse market, which is the fundamental reason why the stock market is hard to rise.