Is The Ruble Exchange Rate Continued To Fluctuate Against Russia?

"Made in China" occupies an important position in the Russian textile and clothing market. In 2013, China exported fur, fur and its products to Russia for us $1 billion 910 million, and exported US $9 billion 770 million of textile raw materials and their products, of which knitted or crocheted garments and accessories were US $3 billion 200 million, non knitted or non Crocheted garments and accessories 3 billion 390 million USD, and its textile products, complete sets of articles and old textile products amounted to US $1 billion 620 million. However, the ruble crisis, which broke out in 2014, has severely affected Chinese textile and apparel exporters in the Russian market. Under such circumstances, how should enterprises cope with this impact?

Companies that want to stay in the Russian market for a long time instead of trying to make a profit should still stick to the market. Although the cost is not small, it is worth the effort of the enterprise. From a political point of view, this is a country with strong social cohesion and strong national will, and has a strong core of leadership. The Russian economy will not collapse completely because of the long oil bear market and the ruble crisis, but it may enhance the resilience of its economic system in crisis, and to a certain extent, achieve the revival of the manufacturing industry. At the same time, China, as Russia's strategic partner, has huge demand for its products. On the one hand, it has insured Russia economically. On the other hand, it also means that the relationship of mutual benefit helps to maintain and expand the market share of Russia in "made in China". Even in the worst case, China can maintain its share in the market through barter trade.

In addition, Russia has great market potential and is worth sticking to. But the seriousness and persistence of this crisis require that enterprises have enough patience. On the eve of new year's day, the Russian government announced the end of the ruble crisis as early as possible. This is actually an attempt to stabilize market expectations, which is not true. The oil bear market, which began in 1980, has lasted for nearly 20 years. The current oil bear market is probably going to last for at least 10 years. Russia's industrial restructuring will take time, and the current dependence on oil and natural gas industry will not change at the moment. In 2015, the Russian Federation budget was based on the oil price of US $60. In fact, the average oil price this year is unlikely to reach US $60. Oil prices are likely to stay at US $40 for a long time, or even break the bottom line of 40 dollars. This market determines that the Russian economy is likely to shrink this year, and the demand for the Russian consumer market will definitely decrease.

At the same time, as the ruble exchange rate has greatly depreciated, the price of Chinese textile and apparel products marked by roubles has risen sharply, and Russian consumers will need some time to accept the new price level. Therefore, the shrinking Russia clothing Consumer demand will remain temporarily frozen for some time now. It is estimated that by the two quarter, Russian consumers will really accept the new price level, and then the consumption demand of Russia will really start after shrinking. Therefore, China's export enterprises to Russia should at least "boil" until then.

In the past two years after the freezing period, China's exports to Russia Textile and clothing products It may be necessary to moderately increase the proportion of low-end products in order to conform to the fact that Russian consumers' purchasing power is falling.

In order to better cope with the current shocks, China's export enterprises need to solve the losses caused by the Russian partners' default due to the ruble crisis. For these problems, if there are corresponding clauses in the contract, it can be claimed; if an enterprise is cooperating with domestic Asset Management Co, property rights exchanges and other platforms, enterprises can transfer the right of subrogation of accounts receivable on these platforms in order to solve the problem of capital turnover or try to transfer products originally made in Russian market to other markets.

Because of this Ruble crisis The pressure of sharp increase in exchange rate risk will certainly enhance the demand for RMB / dollar and other hard currency valuation and settlement in Sino Russian trade. Even in the Russian domestic market, the objective demand of currency substitution (that is, in high inflation and currency sharply depreciated in the national market, hard currency foreign currency or gold instead of local currency valuation and settlement) will also emerge. In terms of price settlement in cross-border trade, if we can use RMB or US dollars without rubles, even in the Russian domestic market, the valuation settlement between Chinese traders can also be converted to RMB or US dollar to avoid risks reasonably. Although Russia prohibits the direct use of foreign currencies in the domestic market, the Russian Chinese businessmen and their Russian trade partners may use the Shanghai free trade area to set up free trade accounts in China's free trade area. The account will be stored in Renminbi or US dollars, and transactions will take place in Russia. The payment calculation can be achieved through free trade accounts in the Shanghai free trade area, thus avoiding possible Russian control.