Guo Shiliang: Why 90% Of People Are Not Suitable For Stocks?

In China's stock market, there is such a rule, that is, ten stocks, seven is a loss, and two is a draw. However, in view of the above situation, it may be an ideal state. Because, in some trading cycles, there are ten people buying stocks and nine people losing money.

In the past ten years, the core area of China's stock market has been around 2500. During the period, although the stock market had a huge trend of oscillation, its overall operation pattern was still not satisfactory.

After entering 2010, the focus of operation of the stock market has obviously shifted underground. During the period, the market also dropped from the 3400 high point to the low point near 1849, with the largest decrease of more than 40%.

After adjusting market from 2010 to 2013, the Chinese stock market in 2014 seemed to have a glimmer of dawn. As of December 31, 2014, China's stock market had risen by more than 52%, breaking the previous decline in one fell swoop.

However, in 2015, the stock market did not extend the previous trend, but started the beginning of the year with high volatility. The reason is mainly attributed to the unique policy market color of China's stock market.

The two increase in scale is considered to be the main reason why the stock market has taken cattle in the past few years.

According to statistics, at the end of 2013, the two scale of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market was only 3400 billion yuan. In the first half of 2014, the scale was only 450 billion yuan. However, in the second half of 2014, the two scale of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market continued to soar. Among them, in November 2014, the scale of the two financial melts surged to 700 billion yuan. By the end of 2014, the scale of the two financial institutions had reached a trillion level.

Under the environment of the two scale of the market continues to surge, the performance of the stock market also has a positive relationship with the scale of the two economies. In other words, as the two financial industry with a certain boost factor, it is recognized as the main driving force of the bull market by the market.

However, in the face of the two scale of continuous growth, management has gradually introduced the "deleveraging of the stock market" measures to suppress the stock market's continued madness.

Entering the 2015, a series of "deleveraging" policy did give the market a lot of pressure. During this period, the stock market has gradually changed the trend of unilateral rise, and then changed to the trend of high lateral shocks.

This shows that the policy market does give the market too much uncertainty. More often than not, investors are unable to avoid the risk of stock market policy in time.

It is worth noting that in China's stock market, in addition to the market systemic risks which are difficult to control, there are more non systematic risks of stocks, commonly known as "Black Swans". On the whole, the risk of stock non systematic risk is quite significant, and ordinary investors often fail to avoid this risk in time.

In the evening of October 30, 2014, it was announced that the 1 million 56 thousand and 400 acres of marine ranch were hit by a cold water regiment in northern the Yellow Sea. Affected by this, the company's performance in the first three quarters of the year has changed dramatically from profit to loss of about 812 million yuan.

Among them, the stock dividend tax, stamp duty The high levy of such taxes will not only affect Investor The confidence of long-term investment and the problem of blind exploitation of investors' wealth.

Take the stock dividend tax as an example, since January 1, 2013, China has implemented the differential dividend tax collection policy. Among them, for investors holding time less than 1 months, a dividend tax of 20% is charged. For investors holding stocks from 1 months to 1 years, a dividend tax of 10% is payable. For investors holding stocks for more than 1 years, a half reduction is granted, that is, the tax burden is 5%.

Obviously, 10% has been levied in the past. Dividend tax Compared to the policy, the new differential dividend tax policy actually "clearly reduces the dark increase". In other words, for most investors, the cost of tax burden has actually increased.

In addition, in the context of high dividend tax levied, the high dividend yield does not give investors real benefits. On the contrary, under the pressure of poor capital gains and high tax burden, it has fallen into the embarrassing situation of "high dividend yield and high tax burden" in actual operation.

Guo Shiliang believes that China's stock market is still dominated by speculative market, and the concept of value investment has not yet been able to win the hearts of the people. At this point, in the stock market, the government, large shareholders of listed companies and celebrities with original shares will be the biggest winners in the stock market. For ordinary investors, in addition to the veteran speculators who are good at taking advantage of the situation, honest investors are unable to profit from it, or even become a loss or even deep hold.