Greece'S Return To Europe Is The Biggest "Swan Swan" Facing The Global Economy.

Investors are particularly concerned about the biggest risks facing the global market due to increased asset valuations and signs of less liquidity.

Greece's withdrawal from the euro, the hard landing of the Chinese economy, the advance of the ISIS and the tightening of monetary policy in the United States will immediately emerge in the minds of the people.

(Deutsche Bank) the researchers took place in different situations.

An assessment was made to find out the next grey swan event that the global economy might face.

"Grey Swans" often refer to events that are not completely unpredictable but can not be seen at all. Once they are mishandled, they may escalate to a more well-known black swan event.

Deutsche Bank points out that the biggest risk is

Another round of eurozone debt crisis triggered by the possibility of Euro retreat.

The bank believes that the probability of this incident has increased compared with April.

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When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the preliminary findings of the annual review of China's economy, it made clear for the first time that the RMB exchange rate was no longer underestimated, and that it would work with China to achieve the goal of bringing the renminbi into the SDR basket.

Zhuo Liang, senior economist at Bank of China in Hongkong, said in today's report that IMF has long argued that the RMB exchange rate is too low. This change in attitude is of great significance and is in sharp contrast to the US authorities who still insist on undervalued RMB.

However, the stance of IMF does not mean that the probability of RMB joining the SDR basket in 2015 will increase significantly.

He believes that on the one hand, IMF pointed out that the RMB accession to the SDR was only a matter of time, but it did not specify.

On the other hand, the statement believed that RMB exchange rate flexibility should be improved as soon as possible, and suggested that the exchange rate should be effective floating in 2 to 3 years.

In other words, before changing the basket of SDR currencies, IMF may want to see further reform of the RMB exchange rate.

According to the report, the decision of IMF reform and the composition of SDR currency basket inevitably involves various political considerations.

But if it is purely economic analysis, there is no evidence that the RMB is undervalued.

From July 2005 to April 2015, the RMB appreciated by 33.5% against the US dollar.

But IMF and other international organizations should not just focus on the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar.

According to the data of the International Bank of clearing (BIS), the trade weighted calculation of RMB nominal effective exchange rate rose by 45.6%.

If the performance of price changes is fully reflected in the real situation of the exchange rate, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the RMB has increased by 56.2% over the past 10 years.

Although the yuan depreciated against the US dollar last year, REER rose by 9.8% from the end of 2013 to April 2015.

In fact, in terms of REER, the RMB exchange rate has not declined in the past 16 months, and it has appreciated at the fastest rate after the reform.

In addition, China's current account surplus has fallen from 10.1% in 2007 to 2.1% in 2014, and has been around 2% for 4 consecutive years, indicating that the external imbalance has been greatly improved in GDP.

To sum up, the RMB exchange rate mechanism can not be denied that there are still a lot of room for optimization, but the exchange rate is no longer underestimated.