The Growth Of Textile Exports In The Second Half Of This Year Is Affected By Three Important Factors.

According to China Customs data, China's textile and clothing exports totaled $131 billion 860 million in the first half of 2015, down 2.9% from the same period last year.

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In the two quarter of the textile industry, the prosperity of the textile industry improved significantly compared with the first quarter, and the export orders index rebounded.

The second half is mainly affected by three important factors.

With the current world economic recovery still weak, the market demand is sluggish and the international competition is becoming more and more complex, the export decline of the textile industry can be narrowed gradually. The proportion of the total exports in the first half of this year has remained 12%.

In the second half of the year, the export pressure of the textile industry is still not light, and it is still a long way to go smoothly. The three important factors still need to be concerned.

First of all, the demand for international market still lacks the power to accelerate expansion.

Developed economies are the main consumer markets for end products.

This year, only the US market is expected to sustain growth in the wake of the macroeconomic recovery, while Japan and the EU, which account for nearly 30% of the industry's exports, are very weak.

The factors such as the boom and downfall of the manufacturing industry and the inflationary pressures have led to the fact that consumers' actual purchasing power and consumer confidence are hard to enhance effectively.

The supporting products such as fabrics are mainly exported to emerging markets. But this year, by the expected impact of US interest rate increase, emerging markets are generally facing the pressure of capital outflow. Tighter liquidity will weaken investment activities, restrict production expansion, and lack effective stimulation of terminal consumption, and the demand for supporting industry chain will also be weakened compared with last year.

Second, exchange rate fluctuations directly affect export earnings and statistics.

In the first half of the year, our country and the European Union

The export volume of clothing will decrease by 8.6% and 12.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, which will slow down the export growth rate by 2.5 percentage points, and the depreciation of the euro and yen is an important factor.

In the first half of this year, the euro and yen to RMB exchange rate depreciated by 18.5% and 14.6% respectively compared with the same period of last year. On the one hand, they continued to devalue rapidly. On the one hand, they increased the price of our export products, weakened the price competitiveness in the international market, and on the other hand increased the risk of settlement loss.

Moreover, China's export figures are in US dollar statistics. In the first half of the year, the euro and Japanese yen depreciated by 18.4% and 14.5% against the US dollar respectively, which caused the US dollar statistics to shrink. According to the statistics of the European Union statistics bureau and the Japanese customs, the euro and yen were priced. In 1~5 months, the European Union and Japan imported 12.8% and 0.9% of our textile and clothing respectively.

In the second half of the year, the euro and yen are expected to remain weak, although the depreciation will be reduced compared with the first half of the year, but the negative impact on the industry's exports is still difficult to completely dissipate.

In the medium to long term, the high import prices caused by the continued depreciation of the euro and yen will also have a negative impact on consumption in Europe and Japan.

Thirdly, international pfer of capacity affects domestic export growth.

In recent years, strengthening the integration of pnational resources and constructing the production layout pattern of "China + neighboring countries" is becoming a new choice for China's textile enterprises.

The increasing domestic comprehensive cost, the diversified purchasing needs of large international buyers, and the promotion of regional free trade led by developed countries such as TPP and TTIP have all become important factors that drive China's textile enterprises to "go out".

Among them,

The process of pferring the middle and low end textile processing capacity to overseas is particularly evident. Some overseas investment enterprises have stopped investing in China, or even shut down some of the original factories in China.

In the first half of this year, exports of knitted apparel and accessories accounted for more than 1/4 of the total export volume of the industry decreased by 9.9% compared with the same period last year, and the decline was obviously greater than that of other categories.

Although the international pfer of capacity reflects China's textile enterprises are stepping into the high-end track of international development, but objectively it has become one of the reasons for the reduction of export scale of the textile industry.