Customs Announces That Export Growth Is Under Great Pressure.

Yesterday, the General Administration of Customs released data show that, according to the US dollar valuation, China's exports in August dropped 5.5% compared with the previous year, the former value dropped 8.3%, the decline narrowed by 2.8 percentage points, still continued negative growth trend.

Policy support is needed in this case.

China's shipping boom index and shipping confidence index rose in the three quarter, suggesting that the foreign trade situation may turn better.

However, in August, the leading index of China's foreign trade was 34, declining for 6 consecutive months, and the export situation was more severe. It was necessary to achieve the target of 6% growth or no small pressure.

But export data also reflect some new changes: the main August

The negative growth rate of export is relatively large, while the export of high-tech products has achieved positive growth. This also shows that the effect of China's economic structural pformation is emerging.

Export narrowed narrowing slightly

In the first 8 months of this year, there was a negative export growth in 6 months, and the pressure to achieve the target of 6% growth in exports for the whole year is self-evident.

In June this year, the export growth rate had returned to the positive growth range, but in July and August, it fell back into the negative growth interval. Compared with the same period, the export volume of last August was 208 billion 330 million US dollars, the relatively high base reduced the growth rate of August export this year.

From the point of view of the ring ratio, exports increased by 1 billion 786 million US dollars in August, down 2.8 percentage points from the same month last year.

Overall, export volume has increased steadily from $144 billion 400 million to US $196 billion 883 million since March, and export data showed signs of slow improvement.

Continuous external demand downturn is the main reason for the lack of export.

From the point of view of export, the main export countries and regions except Korea are all negative growth. Lian Ping said that this may benefit from the establishment of the China South Korea free trade zone.

In other major trading partner countries, the expansion rate of service activities in the US slowed down in August, the economic confidence index declined, and China's exports to the United States dropped by 1%.

The other two economies are more likely to have a big appetite to buy "made in China", which is affected by the continued depreciation of the euro and yen in the past year. The growth rate of exports to the EU and Japan is -7.5% and -5.9% respectively, which is lower than the overall export growth.

In addition, the Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) declined significantly from 1151 in early August to 876 at the beginning of September, a drop of 24%, and the shipping market became colder.

Due to the economic downturn in resource led countries, China's export growth to Russia and Brazil last month was -37.6% and -29.8% respectively.

The macro view of the people's livelihood is that the global trade volume caused by the global aging of the population and slow technological progress has slowed down. The developed countries have accelerated trade rebalancing, and the countries have opened the water competition to seize the export share through currency devaluation, and the new trade rules such as TPP will impact on China, coupled with the recent devaluation of the RMB, but the real exchange rate is still high. Under such multiple pressures, the future export is still not optimistic.

However, the growth rate of export products from different categories can peep out the pformation process in China. In August, the export of mainly labor-intensive products increased negatively. The export growth rates of footwear, furniture, clothing and bags were -10.9%, -10.3%, -7.2% and -6.1% respectively. The export of high-tech products increased positively, with a growth rate of 0.12%.

Stable foreign trade needs further measures

In order to stabilize foreign trade, the State Council has made frequent moves this year: in March 3rd, the State Council issued the "perfection".

Notices on issues related to the burden mechanism; in April 17th, it promulgated "opinions on improving port work and supporting the development of foreign trade"; in May 12th, it issued a number of opinions on accelerating the fostering of new advantages in foreign trade competition.

At the same time, the most sensitive exchange rate with import and export data is also repeated.

In August 11th, the central bank reformed the pricing mechanism of the central parity of RMB exchange rate. In from August 11th to 13th, the RMB depreciated for 3 days in a row, and its depreciation rate was close to 5%.

Although the original intention of the yuan devaluation is not to stimulate exports, but in the short term, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated sharply, which has indeed released considerable pressure on exports.

Guotai Junan reported that exports to the US were better than Europe and Japan, which could prove that the exchange rate factor had a greater impact on exports. In the past year, the euro yen has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, while the RMB anchored the US dollar to become the second strong currency.

In August, exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN were -1.0%, -7.5%, -5.9% and -4.6% year-on-year, and they were -1.3%, -12.3%, -13% and 1.45% respectively in July.

Looking ahead, China's shipping boom index and shipping confidence index have increased in the three quarter, indicating that the foreign trade situation may turn better.

The report pointed out that the export of mechanical and electrical products increased, and the traditional labor-intensive products declined.

Besides, the evidence proves that the excessive strength of RMB makes the export price advantage of labor intensive products weaken and the terms of trade deteriorate.

"Exports can not be controlled, but they can not be ignored."

Li Huiyong, a macroeconomic analyst at Shen Wan Hongyuan, told reporters that the continued negative growth of exports and the shrinking value of real value may trigger enterprises to cut production or even go bankrupt. This will be counterproductive to investment and consumption, and will negatively stimulate economic growth.

Li Huiyong said that within reasonable limits, we should continue to help foreign trade enterprises overcome difficulties through measures such as improving customs clearance efficiency and increasing financial support.