2019 Cotton Reserves Are Coming Out Of The Cotton Market.

The traditional peak season of "golden three silver four" is about to go away, and the cotton market is dull.

With the policy of cotton reserve coming out in April 23rd, will there be an opportunity for cotton futures?

Judging from the market appearance, the current cotton market is not prosperous, mainly due to the insipid purchase and sale in the market, and the cautious operation of buyers and sellers.

造成当前局面的根本原因有以下几点：一、短期国内供过于求格局仍未打破，根据国家棉花市场监测系统数据，截至4月4日，全国新棉销售率59.5%（其中新疆销售率为58.3%），基本与去年持平，但目前大部分资源主要集中在贸易商环节，供应宽松的局面仍有待随时间改变；二、下游产品端消化缓慢，库存回升，加之近期进口纱大量增加，国内纱线价格承压小幅下降，而且棉纺织企业各环节严格控制库存，市场观望气氛浓厚；三、从3月份开始，储备棉开启公检，轮出消息传出后，下游纺企等待低价国储棉补库意愿强烈，部分企业减缓采购节奏或减少订单数量，棉花购销节奏难有提升，加之增发80万吨滑准税进口棉配额公告发布，牵制了前期市场的非理性炒作，而业者保持观望的心态也较为浓厚。

The round out situation and the supply and demand situation of cotton market were filled with hope, and the second round was 1 million tons of cotton reserves, which is much lower than the annual output of nearly 3 million in the past year. This year, the reserve cotton market is "less than enough". Thirdly, according to the feedback from some Treasury stores, the current reserve resources are mainly low grade real estate cotton, just to meet the market's demand for low-quality cotton, and the early market has basically digested the news, so the impact of this round on the market is limited. Fourthly, the domestic spot cotton prices slowly move upward, and the cost of holding cotton merchants' warehousing and capital interest increases gradually. The author believes that cotton market opportunities or mainly in the following aspects: first, the cotton rotation announcement referred to the relevant departments of the state will be based on the actual cotton reserves.

Finally, the Sino US trade consultation is developing well, and the probability of reaching relevant agreements in the later period is higher. Especially, the market has repeatedly mentioned China or implemented the specific rules for purchasing the US cotton, which has been favorable for the external market and the whole international market, and is also expected to boost domestic cotton prices.

From this point of view, opportunities for future cotton remain, and operators can plan appropriate plans ahead of schedule. At the same time, we must pay close attention to the regulation and control of relevant policies, and timely determine the purchase and sale strategy according to specific conditions.